1/25
The S&P 500 is currently trading at all-time highs, and December 31, 2021, was the prior all-time high. I wanted to look at how market conditions of today differ.
December 31, 2021:
• 10-year 1.48%, slight uptrend forming
• 2-year 0.69%, steep uptrend forming
• VIX around 17
• Utilities and Staples led while information tech and communication services lagged.
• Crude Oil at $76.5 per barrel
• DXY $95.91, in sustained uptrend with 50-day above 100-day above 200-day
• National Average retail price of gas is $3.275.
• 10.1 million barrels per day
• 198k new claims unemployment, near term bottom
• Discussion of incoming rate hikes
• 6.8% CPI YoY, solid uptrend
• Core PCE 4.7%, near top
• COVID reopening stalled due to uprise in COVID cases via Omicron variant.
• Per FactSet, S&P Net Profit Margin 12.4%, appeared to have topped at 13% 2 quarters earlier.
• Trailing 12-month P/E around 24, Forward 12 month P/E around 21
• Energy holds most buy ratings, Staples and Utilities hold least buy ratings.
• Forward P/E ratios for every sector except energy above 5- and 10-year average.
• EPS growth expected in following two calendar years.
• Next year revenue growth projections lower for every sector
• Last positive GDP quarter before the 2 consecutive negative GDP quarters in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.
• NASDAQ had 70 new 52-week highs and 141 new 52-week lows.
January 25,2024:
• 10-year 4.12%, touched 5% at end of October 2022, overall relatively flat trend since end of September 2022.
• 2-year 4.33%, trend flat since end of September 2022
• VIX around 13.5
• Technology leading while Staples and Utilities lagged.
• Crude oil at $77.28
• DXY $103.54, rolling over as 50-day just dipped below 200-day. Both 100-day and 200-day flattening out
• National Average retail price of gas is $3.102.
• 13.2 million barrels per day
• 214k new claims unemployment, no discernable trend since the previous high, flat line
• Discussion of incoming rate cuts
• 3.4% CPI YoY, in the 3% range since July 2022, flattening trend.
• Core PCE 3.2%, lowest reading since original spike in May 2021.
• USA is fully reopened from COVID restrictions.
• Per FactSet, S&P Net Profit Margin expected at 10.7%. Lowest since Q2 2020 (COVID shutdown)
• Trailing 12-month P/E around 23, Forward 12 month P/E around 19.5
• Energy holds most buy ratings, Staples and Utilities hold least buy ratings.
• Forward P/E ratios more in-line with 5- and 10-year averages
• Communication Services, Financials, Real Estate, and slightly Energy have lower revenue growth projections next year.
• Positive GDP, but negative Q2 and Q3 projections for 2024 to be determined.
• NASDAQ had 49 new 52-week highs and 66 new 52-week lows.